Galaxy has reduced its estimated odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 60%, reversing part of a recent upgrade as the Senate calendar grows more constrained ahead of the August recess. In a June 5 research alert, Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, said the downgrade is driven less by disagreement over the crypto market structure bill itself than by the shrinking number of legislative days available to move it through the Senate and back through the House if needed.
Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act Odds as Calendar Narrows
Galaxy had raised its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act to 75% on May 22, up from 55% on the morning of the Senate Banking Committee markup on May 14. Thorn now marks that probability back down to 60%, while noting that the bill has already cleared committee by a 15–9 bipartisan vote and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1.
“Two weeks after raising our estimate to 75%, we are marking it back to 60%. The reason is mostly mechanical. The Senate is running out of usable days, and this week made that worse.”
The report frames the current obstacle as procedural rather than substantive. Thorn wrote that Galaxy’s concern is “less about the substance of the bill” than about the number of days left for the Senate to complete floor debate, amendments, coordination with Senate Agriculture Committee text, and any subsequent House action on changes. For a crypto market structure bill that likely needs 60 votes, Galaxy’s view is that Senate Majority Leader John Thune would need to allocate floor time in July for the legislative path to remain workable before recess.
Senate Floor Time Becomes the Decisive Hurdle
Thorn argued that the CLARITY Act likely needs to pass the Senate, and probably return to the House, before the August recess, which is scheduled to begin at the end of July. After that, the report says, the fall calendar becomes much less favorable because 2026 is a midterm election year and members will be focused on campaigning while floor time becomes more contested.
“That leaves a narrow runway. For a 60-vote bill that still needs floor debate, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text, and then House action on the changes, Majority Leader Thune realistically needs to schedule floor time at some point in July. Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess.”
The alert also points to recent Senate business that has consumed time and attention. Thorn cited a lost week tied to the administration’s anti-weaponization fund fight during work on an ICE and Border Patrol funding package, as well as the Senate’s failed procedural vote to advance reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA. With Section 702 set to lapse on June 12, Galaxy expects much of the next week’s floor time to be absorbed by that issue rather than by market structure legislation.
Substantive negotiations also remain unfinished. Thorn wrote that there were no meaningful headlines during the week showing that the bill or negotiations around it had advanced. Ethics provisions sought by Senate Democrats led by Gallego remain unresolved, while illicit-finance hawks continue to seek further changes after Lummis compromise amendments at the Senate Banking markup moved the needle only slightly on BRCA.
“These are solvable, and we expect at least some of them to be solved, but they are not visibly solved yet. The interaction between the two reasons is what drives the downgrade. Floor time is a function of two things: whether the calendar allows it, and whether leadership believes the bill can actually reach 60 votes when it is called.”
Galaxy said it would raise its estimate again if leadership makes a credible early-to-mid July floor commitment and public signs emerge that ethics and illicit-finance issues have been bridged. Thorn also said news that the Banking and Agriculture Committees have merged their texts into a floor-ready package would improve the outlook. Without such signals over the next two to three weeks, Galaxy sees the path shifting toward a post-recess effort in September, where midterm dynamics would make passage more difficult.
Galaxy’s 60% estimate still leaves the CLARITY Act more likely than not to become law this year in the firm’s view, supported by the committee vote, administration engagement, and the bill’s placement on the Senate calendar. But Thorn’s latest assessment makes clear that the practical gap between being listed on the calendar and reaching the Senate floor is now the central risk for crypto market structure legislation.
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.
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