CryptoQuant is urging Strategy to halt additional Bitcoin purchases and rebuild its dollar cash position, arguing that the company’s treasury strategy has become less effective in the current market environment. The call, amplified by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju and Julio Moreno, the firm’s head of research, focuses on Strategy’s shrinking cash buffer, rising dividend obligations tied to STRC, and the risk that continued Bitcoin accumulation may no longer provide the same market impact or shareholder benefit.
CryptoQuant Urges Strategy to Pause Bitcoin Buys
Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, said Strategy’s recent Bitcoin buying “looks more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst,” framing the company’s accumulation as poorly timed for current market conditions. In an X post, Ju wrote: “They should pause Bitcoin purchases, rebuild cash reserves, and adopt a systematic framework for purchase timing. In a low-selling-pressure environment, that demand can move price meaningfully. Under current conditions, with selling pressure clearly elevated, it may do little more than defend the range.”
Ju’s argument centers on market structure rather than on Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity thesis. He noted that Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has grown by $467 billion over the past two years, while the spot price is down 1% over the same period. “Even with hundreds of billions in capital flowing into the market, all that happens is a change of hands. Price doesn’t move up,” he wrote. “Worse, continuous buying may prevent a deeper market-clearing drawdown, giving more holders the liquidity and confidence to take profits.”
The CryptoQuant CEO also said the current cycle has not delivered the kind of capitulation that historically resets Bitcoin ownership. “Normally, Bitcoin cycles reset through crashes, capitulation, weak-hand exits, and whale accumulation. This cycle has been different so far. Bitcoin has moved sideways in a wide range for almost two years,” Ju wrote. He added that Strategy should move away from buying whenever capital is available and instead build a systematic, model-driven framework, arguing that the market meme that “Strategy always buys the local top” reflects a real concern about timing.
Strategy’s Cash Strain Puts Bitcoin Plan in Focus
CryptoQuant’s latest report, titled “Overstretched: Strategy Needs To Stop Buying Bitcoin, Rebuild Its Cash Reserve, And Get More Strategic About Timing,” links the Bitcoin purchase debate directly to Strategy’s capital structure. The report states that STRC fell to $82.5 last week, a record 17.5% below its $100 par value, as Bitcoin’s bear market correction coincided with a depletion of Strategy’s cash reserve. It also says Strategy repurchased $1.5 billion of its 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 in May, materially reducing the cash buffer available to support STRC dividends.
Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, said the decline in STRC was not only a liquidation-driven move. “Some argue that Strategy’s STRC falling below the $100 mark was primarily the result of leveraged positions being liquidated. While this may be true to some extent, we believe the correction was largely driven by a deterioration in Strategy’s fundamentals, as STRC’s dividend cash coverage fell to its lowest level on record.” He cited the depletion of Strategy’s U.S. dollar cash reserve and a roughly fourfold increase in STRC’s annualized dividend obligations so far in 2026 as the key drivers.
The report says Strategy’s annualized dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion, while its U.S. dollar cash reserve has fallen 38% since the start of 2026. Dividend coverage has dropped from more than seven years to 14 months, and CryptoQuant argues that rebuilding the reserve to about $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, is necessary for STRC to recover toward par. The firm also says Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings offer only a limited emergency cushion because the company is carrying a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, with all Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025, and 2026 underwater.
CryptoQuant’s recommendation does not call for Strategy to abandon Bitcoin, but it does challenge the company’s practice of continuous accumulation. The firm’s view is that Strategy should prioritize cash rebuilding, dividend coverage, and a more disciplined purchase framework before adding further Bitcoin exposure. For Michael Saylor, Strategy’s executive chairman, the debate now centers less on whether Bitcoin remains the company’s core treasury asset and more on how that strategy is financed, timed, and managed through a weaker market cycle.
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.
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