21Shares is framing Hyperliquid’s HYPE token less as a conventional crypto beta trade and more as exposure to an emerging exchange business whose growth now depends on macro-market activity, token buybacks, and the durability of non-crypto trading demand. In a May 14 report, the crypto asset manager laid out bull, base, and bear cases for HYPE, arguing that Hyperliquid’s expansion beyond digital assets has changed how investors should evaluate the protocol.
21Shares Sees HYPE as an Emerging Macro Exchange
21Shares’ report centers on Hyperliquid’s role during a recent geopolitical shock, when traditional markets were closed but the blockchain-based derivatives venue continued trading. The firm highlighted that, after U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran on February 28 while the CME was shut, Hyperliquid’s WTI crude perpetual market remained live and priced the move in real time. “Hyperliquid, a blockchain-based derivatives exchange, remained open. Its 24/7 trading engine allowed the WTI crude perpetual to price the shock in real-time, spiking to $111.531 while traditional markets remained closed.”
For 21Shares, the episode matters because it showed Hyperliquid functioning as more than a crypto-native perpetuals venue. The report described the platform as a real-time price discovery layer during weekend gaps and periods of geopolitical stress, with oil still generating roughly $0.5 billion in 24-hour trading volume two months later. “Hyperliquid did not just react faster; it effectively priced the shock nearly 48 hours ahead of the traditional system. That alone is a compelling narrative. What makes it an investment story is what happened next.”
The asset manager argues that Hyperliquid’s business mix has shifted quickly. HIP-3, the protocol’s permissionless framework for launching new perpetual futures markets, now accounts for roughly 35% to 37% of total volume, up 600% to 800% from late 2025, while open interest across those markets reached $1.7 billion in mid-May. Commodities made up about $730 million of that total, with oil representing roughly 20%, and crypto pairs have fallen from about 90% of volume to around 65%. “Thus, the platform that once started as a crypto derivatives exchange is now increasingly behaving like a macro exchange,” 21Shares wrote.
Bull and Bear Cases Turn on Volume and Buybacks
The investment case, as presented by 21Shares, rests heavily on whether Hyperliquid can sustain high trading volumes outside crypto and continue using fees to support HYPE. The report said Hyperliquid has processed $4.22 trillion in cumulative all-time trading volume, including $2.9 trillion in 2025, while cumulative protocol gross revenue has reached $1.15 billion. It also emphasized the Assistance Fund, which directs 97% to 99% of platform fees into automated HYPE buybacks, surpassing $1.5 billion to date. “This share repurchase program scales with volume and requires no board approval, ensuring every trade on the platform directly benefits the token’s supply dynamics.”
At current run rates, 21Shares estimated an implied buyback yield of roughly 13% of HYPE’s circulating market capitalization, compared with about 1% for CME Group based on the report’s annualized comparison. HYPE also functions as a fee medium and is required as collateral for new HIP-3 market deployments, with 500,000 HYPE, worth roughly $19.5 million, locked for each new perpetual market launch. The report said the protocol is currently net deflationary, with monthly buybacks of about 1.95 million HYPE exceeding roughly 1.75 million tokens entering circulation through unlocks and staking.
Valuation is where 21Shares’ bull and bear cases diverge sharply. The report placed HYPE’s circulating market capitalization at about $9.4 billion and trailing 12-month revenue at $944 million, implying a price-to-revenue multiple of roughly 10 times, compared with 17.32 times for CME Group. In the bull case, if geopolitical tensions persist, commodity trading stays elevated, traditional asset traders continue adopting Hyperliquid after market close, and HIP-3 open interest moves toward $3 billion to $5 billion, annualized revenue could reach $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion. Applying a CME-like multiple of roughly 16 to 17 times revenue would imply a market capitalization of about $15 billion to $17 billion, or approximately $62 to $70 per HYPE. In the bear case, if non-digital asset trading cools and buybacks fail to offset token unlocks, revenue could fall toward $350 million to $450 million, with a 10 times multiple implying a $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion market cap, or about $15 to $19 per HYPE.
21Shares’ conclusion is that HYPE is now being valued more like an exchange business than a typical speculative altcoin, but that the thesis depends on sustained non-crypto volume, buybacks continuing to exceed dilution, and successful expansion into features such as options and prediction markets through HIP-4. The report also names key risks, including centralization concerns after the JELLYJELLY and POPCAT incidents, regulatory uncertainty due to U.S. geoblocking and on-chain commodities exposure, geopolitical volatility, and the possibility that lower trading activity weakens buyback support. “The oil market didn’t trade on a blockchain for decentralization purposes; it traded because all other markets were closed. This distinction, utility over ideology, is what separates Hyperliquid’s current moment from the decentralized finance narratives that preceded it.”
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.
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