Bitcoin’s sharp rebound from April lows is now running into a familiar test: elevated profit-taking, weakening U.S. spot demand and a major technical resistance level. CryptoQuant Research Lead Julio Moreno wrote on X that the firm had been warning for several weeks that Bitcoin was vulnerable to a correction, citing “high unrealized profits,” a “spike in profit taking in spot and futures markets,” a “slowdown of US spot demand,” and “technical and on-chain price resistance.”
Bitcoin Rally Meets Profit-Taking Pressure
Bitcoin has climbed 37% from its April lows and is now testing the 200-day moving average at $82,400, a level CryptoQuant describes as a major bear-market resistance zone. The firm’s latest analysis frames the current setup against a prior cycle comparison, noting that Bitcoin rallied 43% in March 2022 before reaching the same long-term moving average and then resuming its downward trend. That parallel does not determine the outcome of the current move, but it helps explain why traders are watching the $82,400 area closely.
CryptoQuant’s report states, “Bitcoin has reached a major bear market resistance level, the 200-day moving average at $82.4K, following a 37% price rally from the April lows. The parallel with March 2022 is direct: in that cycle, Bitcoin also rallied 43% before hitting the 200-day MA, after which the price resumed its downward trend.” The firm added that “the current setup raises the question of whether history repeats,” placing the rally in a risk zone where both technical and on-chain signals are becoming more important.
The profit backdrop has also shifted. Traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, 2026, the highest level since June 2025, signaling that holders with meaningful paper gains may have stronger incentives to sell into strength. CryptoQuant wrote, “Traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, 2026, the highest reading since June 2025, signaling elevated selling pressure risk as holders sitting on large unrealized gains become increasingly incentivized to distribute. These margin levels mirror those seen in March 2022, precisely when Bitcoin last tested the 200-day MA before resuming its decline.”
Weak US Demand Tests Bulls Near Key Resistance
Realized profit data shows that some of that selling has already moved from paper gains into actual distribution. Daily realized profits rose to 14,600 BTC on May 4, 2026, the highest level since December 10, 2025. For traders, this matters because realized profit spikes during bear-market rallies can indicate that short-term holders are using liquidity and higher prices to exit positions rather than accumulate.
CryptoQuant’s analysis states, “Daily realized profits spiked to 14.6K BTC on May 4, 2026, the highest level since December 10, 2025, suggesting that profit-taking has begun. Historically, spikes of this magnitude in bear market rallies have preceded local price tops, as the cohort of newly profitable short-term holders accelerates distribution into price strength.” Moreno’s X post aligned with that assessment, identifying profit-taking in both spot and futures markets as one of the main reasons the firm had expected a correction risk to build.
Demand signals from U.S. venues are also not confirming the rally as strongly as bulls would prefer. CryptoQuant reported that the Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium turned negative in late April and has remained below zero, pointing to slower U.S. investor demand as Bitcoin approached $80,000. The report states, “Historically, a sustained positive Coinbase premium is a prerequisite for durable price rallies; its absence suggests the current move lacks broad-based US institutional conviction. Concurrently, spot apparent demand contraction has narrowed from -91K BTC in April to -11K BTC today — improving but still negative — while demand growth remains concentrated in speculative perpetual futures positions rather than spot accumulation.”
If Bitcoin pulls back from current resistance, CryptoQuant identifies roughly $70,000 as the primary on-chain support area, based on the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price. The firm describes that level as a resistance-turned-support band in bear markets because it represents the average cost basis of short-term traders and the zone where unrealized profit margins compress toward zero, reducing the incentive for additional selling. For now, the rally remains defined by a clear tension: strong price recovery on one side, and profit-taking, negative Coinbase premium readings and still-weak spot demand on the other.
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.
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