Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, said in an April 23 interview on the Thinking Crypto podcast that he still views Bitcoin’s downturn as part of its familiar four-year cycle, even after a period shaped by macro and political shocks. Speaking from the Solana Policy Summit, Scaramucci argued that recent weakness should be understood in the context of post-halving behavior, whale distribution, and delayed regulatory progress rather than as a structural breakdown in the asset. He also said he expects sentiment to remain soft for some time before improving, with a broader recovery path extending into late 2026.
Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Follows a Cyclical Path
Scaramucci framed the current market as a conventional bear phase tied to Bitcoin’s historical cycle. “I’ve been in the category that this is a cyclical bear market traditional to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin,” he said on the podcast. “You’ve just crossed the halfway mark of the halving and so you’re on your way to the back half of this thing. You typically don’t get any type of real recovery until the first quarter of next year.”
He said this cycle appears somewhat distorted by macro events, including tariff-related volatility, political messaging from President Donald Trump, and war risk. Still, Scaramucci said Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient during recent geopolitical stress. In his words, “you probably won’t see a recovery in Bitcoin until maybe the first month of the last quarter, right, so we’re talking October possibly November of this year,” while adding that investors remain too focused on near-term weakness in Bitcoin, altcoins, and Solana.
According to Scaramucci, another factor has been selling pressure from large holders who continue to trade around the cycle. He said “the whales were pumping lots of coins into the supply at around 100,000 and that’s why we dropped into the high 60s.” He contrasted that with steady ETF-led demand, especially from older investors, saying “a lot of boomers are buying Bitcoin,” but argued the inflows have not yet been large enough to offset cycle-driven supply.
He Sees a Recovery Taking Shape by Late 2026
While Scaramucci pointed to a possible turn in late 2025, he made clear that his more important view is long term. Discussing client positioning at SkyBridge, he said the firm remains heavily exposed to Bitcoin and also holds Solana-related and other crypto-linked positions. “I’m long-term bullish on this stuff. It’s not a great environment for it,” he said. “But again, if you looked at where we were five years ago to where we are today, I love where we are. I can’t believe the growth in this industry.”
He tied that outlook to adoption, tokenization, and eventual regulatory normalization in the US. Scaramucci said he believes legislation such as the Clarity Act could help reduce friction for banks and wealth managers, though he noted that progress in Washington has been slower than he previously expected. “If you don’t get the Clarity Act legislation passed, you’re not going to get the banks to really open up,” he said. He added that full-scale adoption likely depends on major money-center banks offering custody, lending, and broader Bitcoin-related services to clients.
Scaramucci also suggested that today’s bearishness could look misplaced in retrospect. “If I’m lucky enough to be sitting here with you guys five years from now, I think we’ll look back and say, ‘Wow, those prices in 2026, I’m not sure why people were so negative given where we are today in 2031,’” he said. That remark implies he sees 2026 not as the end of the down cycle, but as a period in which recovery becomes clearer and is later recognized as an attractive reentry zone by long-horizon investors.
Scaramucci’s comments amount to a market outlook, not a forecast grounded in disclosed trading models or new data. Still, they offer a useful window into how one long-time crypto investor is interpreting the current drawdown: as a cyclical reset shaped by macro disruptions, delayed legislation, and large-holder selling rather than a break in Bitcoin’s long-term adoption trend. For market participants, the key takeaway is less the exact month of a rebound than the framework behind his call that recovery conditions may become more visible by late 2026.
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.
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