Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says institutional demand is absorbing newly mined Bitcoin at a rate far above fresh issuance, adding another data point to a market setup he characterizes as broadly bullish across on-chain, derivatives and technical indicators. In a May 5, 2026 Substack post, Edwards wrote that institutions are now buying up 577% of daily mined Bitcoin supply, while Capriole’s core Bitcoin models have remained long from around $71,000.
Institutional Bid Tops New Bitcoin Issuance
Edwards framed the institutional bid as the central development since his prior market note. “Since last issue institutions have gone berserk and are now buying up 577% of the daily mined Bitcoin supply. That’s huge. Bitcoin is up 12%.” He presented the question for traders as whether that demand marks “local euphoria” or the start of a larger Bitcoin rally.
Capriole’s post also described the same flow dynamic as institutions “slurping up 600%+ of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply,” a level the firm says has historically preceded strong short-term price action. “Every time it’s been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. As the chart shows, we’ve typically seen double digit returns from here with a couple of weeks in all prior cases.” Edwards added that a comparable move would imply a Bitcoin price around $96,000, though that remains a model-based scenario rather than a guaranteed outcome.
The supply-demand imbalance sits alongside other Bitcoin signals highlighted in the note. Edwards wrote that “Bitcoin is bullish across on-chain and technical data,” reiterating Capriole’s previous view that “amongst this swathe of data (and more) it’s hard not to be bullish.” He also pointed to what he described as “complete capitulation” in derivatives markets during March and April, followed by a bullish recovery in Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, after the metric moved back above 1.
Capriole Models Point to a Risk-On Breakout
Capriole’s longer-running systems are also positioned constructively. Edwards said Trend King, the firm’s live trading strategy first publicly released in 2019, is currently “leverage long Bitcoin.” He described the model as “primarily a technical strategy” that also incorporates selected on-chain factors, and said it had managed funds continuously since release.
The firm’s Macro Index, which Edwards described as Capriole’s fundamentals-only Bitcoin model, has also turned positive. “Macro Index is our fundamentals only Bitcoin model, tracking over 200 on-chain and macro market data points it provides our preferred aggregate view of fundamental data for Bitcoin. Macro Index also flipped bullish a few weeks ago at around $71K. It’s now in ‘recovery’ mode and Macro Index trends tend to be sticky.” For a market audience, the key point is that Capriole’s technical and fundamental frameworks are aligned rather than diverging.
Edwards extended the risk-on argument to equities, while noting that the picture outside Bitcoin is more mixed. Capriole’s “Quiet strong market” strategy remains risk-on for equities, and the post cited lower volatility and collapsing credit spreads as supportive of the current breakout trend. At the same time, Edwards flagged weakness in the Advance Decline line, elevated oil prices, and the Gold-to-Stock ratio as longer-term risks. “Equities are more nuanced, with a few warning flags flashing, but those are mostly longer-term warning signs, which would require more bearish near-term confluence to really get behind,” he wrote.
Edwards’ bottom line is that Bitcoin currently shows consistent strength across institutional demand, on-chain indicators, derivatives positioning and Capriole’s internal models. For equities, he described a more conditional setup, with the S&P 500’s 7000 level acting as a nearby technical line in the sand. “Until then, the trend is your friend,” Edwards wrote. “We just might be back.”
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.
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