Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said Bitcoin’s near-term upside may depend less on the usual cycle narrative and more on whether the network shows meaningful progress on quantum resilience. In an April 23 Bitcoin Suisse podcast, Edwards argued that Bitcoin looks undervalued across several on-chain and macro indicators, but said the market is already discounting a rising quantum-computing risk. His view: if Bitcoin core development begins treating the issue as a real priority, the asset could reprice sharply higher; if not, fresh all-time highs may remain out of reach.
Why Charles Edwards Sees Quantum as the Key
Edwards framed quantum risk as the central open question for Bitcoin’s valuation rather than a distant theoretical issue. Speaking to Bitcoin Suisse hosts Dominic Weibel and Luca Gnos, he said, “I say today it’s fully priced in the risk and more so. So for me that means it’s a good opportunity in the near term.” But he immediately attached a condition to that stance, adding, “If we do nothing for two years, I probably won’t have any Bitcoin.”
That distinction matters because Edwards is not describing quantum as an abstract long-run concern. According to the podcast, he believes the probability of a so-called “Q-Day” remains low in the next year or two, but rises materially over the following years. He said Bitcoin needs post-quantum signatures implemented “as soon as possible,” alongside a migration plan for active users and a policy response for older or lost coins that could become vulnerable if encryption is broken.
He was especially critical of what he described as a lack of urgency from parts of the Bitcoin Core ecosystem. “Some of the biggest core developers recently said it’s not even our top 100 priorities,” Edwards said. “For me this is the only priority that Bitcoin should have. Nothing else matters.” He contrasted that with what he characterized as broader institutional awareness, saying quantum risk has appeared in ETF disclosures and influenced some allocation decisions, while Ethereum has elevated the issue more explicitly.
Edwards also explained how he arrives at the idea that the risk is already reflected in price. He pointed to what he sees as unusual market behavior: a negative year after the halving, Bitcoin underperforming while gold rallied strongly, and weakness against both gold and the S&P 500 as quantum concerns became more mainstream. In his telling, those divergences coincided with investor attention shifting toward quantum timelines and institutional commentary.
On the timeline itself, Edwards said his team reviewed estimates from quantum companies and physicists and concluded that most forecasts cluster within the next nine years. “We’re at a point where there’s the nonzero threat of quantum existing in the next year or two,” he said. “The probability is very low but it’s non-zero, and it jumps to 20%, 30%-plus in two, three years.” That is still an estimate, not a confirmed timetable, but it underpins his valuation discount framework.
Even so, Edwards said any credible development response from Bitcoin could quickly remove part of that overhang. “Any event where you get one, two, or three of the main core guys saying something like that, that they’re working on it, they’re doing something, or it’s now priority, I think you’re going to get a big repricing in Bitcoin up,” he said. “Because a lot of the risk will just disappear overnight.”
Bitcoin’s Next Breakout May Depend on Core Action
Outside the quantum issue, Edwards described Bitcoin’s current setup as unusually constructive. He said Bitcoin has recently outperformed major assets despite broad pessimism and geopolitical stress, calling that a strong relative-strength signal. “Bitcoin which has been in a massive downtrend for the last nine months completely flipped the script in the last two, three weeks,” he said. “Those are very strong signals. You usually only get every couple of years in my experience.”
He also cited a range of valuation tools from Capriole’s framework, including energy value, MVRV-style measures, and institutional flow data. According to Edwards, those indicators broadly suggest Bitcoin is trading in a value zone even after adjusting for a quantum discount. He said Bitcoin’s “fair value” on his energy-based model sits near $115,000, implying that the asset remains below that level by a meaningful margin. That figure is his model estimate, not a market consensus benchmark.
A key part of the bullish case, in his view, is institutional demand replacing miners as the dominant supply-and-demand variable. Edwards said ETFs and treasury companies now represent the more important force in Bitcoin’s market structure, arguing that periods when institutional buying exceeds newly mined supply have historically aligned with major price appreciation. He also noted that institutional ownership now exceeds 12% of network supply, based on the data he discussed on the podcast.
Still, Edwards said that positive backdrop may not be enough on its own to produce a decisive breakout. “If we get measurable traction on quantum, we could have a new all-time high very quickly, I think,” he said. “If we don’t, we may not get one.” In other words, he sees upside potential, but with a specific execution risk tied to developer action rather than macro conditions alone.
For the shorter term, Edwards said he no longer relies heavily on the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, arguing that institutional flows matter more than miner-led supply dynamics now. He told Bitcoin Suisse that net institutional buying had turned constructive after a weaker period late last year and early this year, which he reads as supportive for price. He also said long-term holder behavior had begun to improve, another signal he associates with stronger market structure.
That leaves Bitcoin in an unusual position: strong relative strength, depressed sentiment, and what Edwards called a deep-value setup, but with a technology risk hanging over the long-term thesis. “It tells me to be long,” he said of the current data. At the same time, his broader message was clear: the next major leg higher may depend on whether Bitcoin’s core stakeholders move from acknowledging quantum in theory to addressing it in practice.
Edwards’ comments on the Bitcoin Suisse podcast present a conditional bull case for Bitcoin rather than an unconditional one. He argues that price, relative performance, and on-chain metrics point to opportunity, but that the market is also discounting a real and growing quantum threat. For traders and allocators, the implication is straightforward: in Edwards’ framework, Bitcoin’s next breakout may hinge not just on flows or macro, but on visible progress from the developers who maintain its core security assumptions.
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.
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