Galaxy’s latest Bitcoin research argues that the market may not have completed its current cycle drawdown, even though the decline from the October 2025 high has been milder than in previous bear markets. The June 12 report, written by Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s Head of Firmwide Research, frames the current cycle as evidence that Bitcoin’s four-year pattern remains empirically relevant, but with smaller swings on both the upside and downside.
Galaxy Says Bitcoin Bottom May Still Be Ahead
Galaxy’s report says Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak was unusually subdued by historical standards, with fewer classic signs of speculative excess than prior cycle tops. The firm found that only two of 11 top indicators reached even the mildest levels seen at previous peaks, while major valuation and sentiment measures were far cooler than in 2013, 2017 or 2021. MVRV, which compares market value with realized value, peaked at 2.29 this cycle, versus 2.93 to 5.91 at the last three major tops.
“The October 2025 peak was the calmest top bitcoin has ever made, and the decline since has been unusually mild. If the high was so tame, should we expect the eventual cycle low to be unusually shallow too? And, if so, roughly where might that bottom land?”
The report’s answer is that the bottom may still be ahead, but that any eventual low could be much higher than the old bear-market playbook would imply. Galaxy’s base case places a potential cycle bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 sometime between now and the fourth quarter of 2026, while stressing that the scenario is illustrative and that actual results may differ materially. A more severe washout, using past bear-market valuation levels, would imply roughly $30,000 to $37,000, while a shallower outcome near the market’s cost basis would imply around $51,000 to $54,000.
Galaxy’s reasoning rests on cycle compression. Past peak-to-trough Bitcoin declines have narrowed from 85% to 84% to 77%, while the current drawdown was around 51% as of the report’s June 9 reference date. Historically, cycle lows have arrived about 12 to 13 months after the peak; the current cycle was only about eight months past the October 2025 high when the analysis was prepared.
“This report assumes that the current drawdown’s bottom is not in, and we present data to support that assumption. The data also suggests that the calmer top in October 2025 is likely to result in a shallower bottom. And the historical analogies suggest a base case bottom for the current drawdown between $40k-46k occurring sometime between now and Q4 2026.”
Onchain Signals Point to a Shallow, Later Low
The onchain picture is central to Galaxy’s argument. The report says only four of 13 historical bottom indicators have triggered in the current drawdown, while the strongest signals associated with prior cycle lows have not appeared. Those missing signals include price falling below realized price, holders sitting on aggregate losses, sustained loss-taking, and a deeper capitulation-style flush.
Galaxy notes that Bitcoin’s realized price, described in the report as the market’s aggregate onchain cost basis, sat near $53,000 after rising from about $47,000 over the prior year and peaking near $56,000 in late 2025. Because the October top was relatively calm, that cost basis stood much closer to the all-time high than in previous cycles: about 43.7% of the prior ATH, compared with roughly one-third or less in earlier cycles. That higher starting point is why Galaxy argues that a repeat of prior bottom behavior would translate into a higher dollar price than the familiar 75% to 85% drawdown range.
“The strongest signs that have marked every true bottom (the price falling below the cost basis, holders sitting on aggregate losses, sustained loss-taking, a deep capitulation flush) have not happened. At −51% the decline is still far milder than the −77% to −85% lows that ended every past cycle, and milder than the −53% mid-2021 dip.”
The report also emphasizes that the floor is not fixed. Realized price can fall if coins change hands at losses during a deeper sell-off, meaning a panic could drag the implied bottom range lower. Galaxy says a 10%, 20% or 30% decline in cost basis could move a typical-style bottom from around $40,000 toward $36,000, $32,000 or $28,000, bringing it closer to historical bear-market territory.
“There is reflexivity to the cost basis. Cost basis can look like a floor, but it is built from prices coins last traded at. In a real sell-off, coins change hands at a loss and pull that average down, so the floor chases the price lower instead of holding it.”
Galaxy further cautions that spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers are not a simple backstop. The report says those flows did not exist in the same way during earlier cycles, but also notes that ETF redemptions and corporate buying patterns could intensify weakness rather than absorb it in a deep decline. The firm’s conclusion is therefore framed as a range-based onchain study, not a precise price target.
Galaxy’s analysis leaves traders with a nuanced read: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may still be intact, but the cycle’s amplitude appears to be compressing. If the pattern holds, the eventual low may arrive later and below current levels, yet well above the old 75% to 85% drawdown template. The key variables, in Galaxy’s framework, are whether deeper bottom indicators begin to trigger and whether realized price holds firm or moves lower under renewed selling pressure.
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.