Citigroup has cut its 12-month price targets for both bitcoin and ether, arguing that stalled U.S. crypto legislation is weakening one of the market’s main expected catalysts for the next year. The revision matters because Citi had tied a more constructive outlook to clearer regulation, stronger ETF flows, and broader institutional adoption — all of which now look less certain on the current policy timeline.
Citi Cuts Crypto Targets as Senate Bills Stall
As Reuters reported, Citi lowered its 12-month bitcoin target to $112,000 from $143,000, while trimming its ethereum forecast to $3,175 from $4,304. The move amounts to a sharp reset in expectations, with bitcoin’s target reduced by roughly 22% and ether’s by about 26%, reflecting a less favorable path for U.S. policy support than the bank had previously assumed.
The bank’s reasoning was straightforward: legislative momentum in Washington has slowed, and that reduces the odds of near-term regulatory catalysts feeding through to flows. As Citi strategist Alex Saunders wrote, “Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing.” In other words, the bullish case has not disappeared, but the timeline now looks much less supportive.
That shift appears to center on the Senate, where progress on crypto market-structure legislation has stalled. Reuters reported that the Clarity Act’s chances of passage have declined amid disagreements over stablecoin rules and a shrinking window for approval in 2026. The politics are also getting harder. Passage would require support from at least seven Senate Democrats, while some lawmakers are pushing for language that would bar elected officials from profiting from crypto ventures, a debate that has gained attention amid scrutiny of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial project.
Weaker Policy Odds Dim ETF and Adoption Outlook
For Citi, the legislative slowdown is not just a policy story; it feeds directly into market structure and adoption assumptions. The bank had expected clearer rules to help unlock stronger ETF-driven demand and broaden institutional participation. With that regulatory pathway looking less immediate, the bank is dialing back the extent to which those inflows can be relied on to reprice the two largest crypto assets over the next 12 months.
Citi’s scenario analysis shows how much of the outlook still hinges on macro and demand conditions. In a recessionary backdrop, the bank sees bitcoin falling to $58,000 and ether to $1,198. Its bull case is much higher, with bitcoin reaching $165,000 and ether $4,488, driven by stronger end-investor demand. That leaves a wide range of outcomes, but the revised base case now reflects a market that may need to do more without the help of fast-moving U.S. regulation.
Ethereum, in Citi’s view, looks especially exposed to usage trends that have not yet turned convincingly higher. The bank said, “ETH will be especially sensitive to user activity metrics, which have been weak recently, but stablecoin and tokenization trends may increase interest and usage.” That is a nuanced read rather than an outright bearish one: user activity is soft, but the longer-term rails around stablecoins and tokenized assets could still provide support if those segments continue to expand.
Citi also flagged the election calendar as a further source of uncertainty. Chances of passing a crypto bill would shrink further if Democrats gain seats in Congress in the November midterms, Reuters said, since Democrats remain more divided on rewriting federal rules to accommodate digital assets. Other lawmakers, meanwhile, have called for tighter anti-money laundering provisions, adding another point of friction to negotiations that were already becoming more difficult.
The bank’s near-term market take is correspondingly restrained. “Bitcoin is likely to range-trade anticipating legislative news flow with (about) $70,000 an important level representing the pre-U.S. election price,” Citi said. With bitcoin last around $74,298 and ether near $2,345, the revised targets still imply upside from current levels, but Citi is clearly signaling that policy delays have reduced the odds of a cleaner rerating led by Washington.
Citi’s reset does not amount to a rejection of the broader crypto thesis. It is a repricing of timing, and of how much the market can count on U.S. legislation to accelerate flows, ETF demand, and institutional uptake over the next year. For now, that leaves bitcoin and ether trading in a market still sensitive to macro conditions, congressional negotiations, and whether regulatory clarity arrives soon enough to matter for 2026 positioning.