Bitcoin is beginning the week with a firmer tone after a sharp cross-asset reversal, as easing geopolitical risk reduced demand for traditional safe havens and revived appetite for risk assets. In its Week 25, 2026 Crypto Market Compass, Bitwise Europe, led by André Dragosch, PhD, Director and Head of Research for Europe, argued that Bitcoin now looks cheap relative to its own long-term trend even as parts of the AI equity trade remain extended. The report is published by Bitwise, a crypto asset manager, and is aimed at professional investors.
Bitcoin Looks Cheap as Safe-Haven Demand Fades
Bitcoin based around $61,000 mid-week before rising close to 3% in early Monday trading to roughly $65,400, while equities recovered much of their recent losses. Gold moved in the opposite direction, slipping toward $4,000 per ounce and heading for a second consecutive weekly decline. Bitwise framed the move as a reversal of the prior risk-off episode, with cryptoassets outperforming as the prospect of a US-Iran peace deal reduced geopolitical risk.
“The message from these performances is clear. As geopolitical risk drained out of the system, the classic safe-haven was sold while risk assets, equities and Bitcoin alike, were bought.” The report linked the risk-on shift to terms circulating via The Kobeissi Letter, including a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension, a negotiation window on Iran’s nuclear programme, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and discussions around sanctions relief and frozen Iranian funds.
Bitwise’s central relative-value argument rests on the Mayer Multiple, which compares price with the 200-day moving average. “This brings us to relative value. On the Mayer Multiple, the ratio of price to the 200-day moving average, where a reading below 1.0 has historically marked an accumulation zone and values above 2.4 signalled bubble territory, Bitcoin has fallen back below 1.0, having sat just under its long-term trend at around 0.94 in late May before this latest leg lower. Applying the same trend-deviation lens to Nvidia tells the opposite story: the poster child of the AI trade continues to trade at a sizeable premium to its own 200-day average.” On that basis, Bitwise said Bitcoin screens as “deep value” while semiconductor and AI equities remain stretched.
Relief Rally Tests Fragile Crypto Sentiment
The improvement in crypto sentiment is meaningful but not yet decisive. Bitwise’s in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index recovered from last week’s deeply bearish readings, which the firm described as the most pessimistic since February, and moved into slightly bullish territory. Still, the report cautioned that the bounce should be viewed as a relief rally rather than confirmation of a durable trend change, particularly with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still in “Extreme Fear” at 18.
On-chain data also points to a market still digesting a severe drawdown. After last week’s crash to $59,000, Bitcoin recovered toward the $64,000 area, but investor stress remained elevated. Bitwise estimated that roughly $851 billion in capital was held at a loss, equal to about 79% of all invested value, while the share of circulating supply in profit fell to 47.5%. “Taken together, the market remains in a fragile post-capitulation state, with the recent decline generating one of the sharpest deteriorations in investor profitability of the cycle. Nevertheless, across multiple on-chain and price-based valuation frameworks, the market continues to trade in some of its lowest historical percentiles, as discussed in our recent note here.”
Derivatives positioning reinforces the mixed picture. BTC perpetual futures open interest fell by about 8,060 BTC over the week, while CME futures open interest rose by roughly 7,790 BTC, suggesting leverage came out of offshore perpetual markets as institutionally oriented positioning increased. Liquidations dropped sharply to about $2.44 billion from $7.15 billion the prior week, and seven-day average perpetual funding cooled to an annualised 1.76% from 5.97%. “In short, Bitcoin stabilised after last week’s sharp deleveraging, bouncing from its 200-week moving average as risk sentiment improved on the successful SpaceX IPO and reports of progress toward a US-Iran deal. Liquidations fell sharply to $2.44bn from $7.15bn, while perpetual funding cooled to +1.76%, suggesting leverage has been rebuilt more cautiously. With CME open interest rising, basis still positive, options positioning mixed and dealer gamma more negative again, prices remain sensitive around the $63k to $65k zone.”
The week’s setup leaves Bitcoin caught between improving short-term risk appetite and unresolved macro pressure. Bitwise identified the Federal Reserve decision as the key near-term catalyst, with markets pricing a hold at 3.50%–3.75% but watching guidance, the dot plot and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for any hawkish surprise. For now, the report’s message is narrow but important: Bitcoin looks cheap relative to its long-term trend, yet the market has not fully escaped the fragility left by the latest deleveraging cycle.
AI Transparency Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of an AI system based on the sources listed and was reviewed, edited, and approved by a human editor before publication. All quotes, data points, and factual claims are intended to be grounded in the cited source material; however, errors cannot be ruled out entirely.