{"id":328,"date":"2026-03-06T07:31:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:31:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ai-crypto-news.com\/?p=328"},"modified":"2026-03-19T11:14:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T11:14:28","slug":"culper-ethereum-short-tokenomics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ai-crypto-news.com\/de\/news\/culper-ethereum-short-tokenomics\/","title":{"rendered":"Culper geht Short Ethereum und warnt vor schwachen Tokenomics"},"content":{"rendered":"

Culper Research hat auf X eine Short-Position in Ethereum und ETH-nahe Wertpapiere offengelegt \u2013 und begr\u00fcndet den Trade mit \u201ekaputten\u201c Tokenomics nach dem Fusaka-Upgrade im Dezember 2025. Im Zentrum der Kritik stehen eine unerwartet starke Geb\u00fchrenerosion, verzerrte On-Chain-Signale und ein Streit mit ETH-Bulle Tom Lee \u00fcber die Interpretation der Aktivit\u00e4tsdaten.<\/p>\n

Culper geht Short auf ETH und ETH-nahe Titel<\/h2>\n

Culper schreibt<\/a>, man sei \u201eshort Ether ETH und ETH-verkn\u00fcpfte Wertpapiere, einschlie\u00dflich BMNR\u201c. Der Kern der These: Die ETH-Tokenomics seien nach Fusaka \u201ebeeintr\u00e4chtigt\u201c, weshalb die Bewertung anf\u00e4lliger sei \u2013 nicht nur bei Spot, sondern auch bei b\u00f6rsennotierten Vehikeln, die eng an die ETH-Story gekoppelt sind. Die Aussage \u201eETH f\u00e4llt weiter\u201c setzt den Ton des Threads: Es geht nicht um kurzfristiges Sentiment, sondern um eine strukturelle Neubewertung der Cashflow- und Yield-Dynamik im Ethereum-\u00d6kosystem.<\/p>\n

Besonders scharf zielt Culper auf den prominenten ETH-Bullen Tom Lee, der laut Culper \u00fcber BMNR ETH gegen Skeptiker verteidige. Lees zentrale Verteidigung werde mit einem Satz zusammengefasst: \u201eETH befindet sich nicht in einer Todesspirale, weil der Nutzen steigt.\u201c Als Beleg f\u00fchre Lee nach Fusaka steigende aktive Adressen und Transaktionszahlen an und interpretiere das als \u201est\u00e4rker werdende Fundamentaldaten\u201c und institutionelle Adoption.<\/p>\n

Culper dreht diese Logik um und macht daraus den entscheidenden Punkt f\u00fcr den Short: Wenn die Aktivit\u00e4t nicht Ausdruck von Nutzen sei, dann w\u00e4re das \u2013 nach Lees eigenem Rahmen \u2013 ein Todesspiralen-Signal. Culper formuliert es zugespitzt: \u201eNach Lees eigener Logik gilt: Wenn die ETH-Aktivit\u00e4t NICHT steigenden Nutzen und st\u00e4rkere Fundamentaldaten widerspiegelt, dann w\u00fcrde sich ETH in einer Todesspirale befinden. Unsere Research sagt, genau das passiert.\u201c<\/p>\n

Streit um Fusaka: Tokenomics, Fees und \u201ePoisoning\u201c<\/h2>\n

Die datengetriebene Begr\u00fcndung h\u00e4ngt an einer konkreten Diagnose: Culper behauptet, die von Lee zitierte Aktivit\u00e4t sei zu gro\u00dfen Teilen kein organisches Nutzungswachstum, sondern werde durch \u201eeine Flut geringwertiger Address-Poisoning- \/ Wallet-Dusting-Aktivit\u00e4ten\u201c erkl\u00e4rt, ausgel\u00f6st durch ein \u00dcberangebot an Blockspace nach Fusaka. Grundlage sei eine Auswertung von On-Chain-Daten von Januar 2025 bis Februar 2026. In der zugespitzten Lesart sind die Metriken zwar real, aber \u00f6konomisch \u201eleer\u201c \u2013 und damit als Fundamentaldaten-Signal wertlos oder sogar irref\u00fchrend.<\/p>\n

Culper quantifiziert die Behauptung mit mehreren Anteilen: \u201eNach Fusaka werden 95% des Wachstums neuer Wallets durch neu erstellte \u201aDusting\u2018-Wallets erkl\u00e4rt; Poisoning-Angriffe haben sich mehr als verdreifacht; Poisoning erkl\u00e4rt \u00fcber 50% des Transaktionswachstums von ETH und macht inzwischen 22,5% aller ETH-Transaktionen aus.\u201c Zus\u00e4tzlich beschreibt Culper einen Selbsttest: Man habe zwei neue Wallets erstellt, Transfers zwischen ihnen initiiert und sei innerhalb von f\u00fcnf Minuten Ziel von Poisoning-Angriffen geworden; Leser sollten das selbst verifizieren. Auch bei den Sch\u00e4den wird ein Zeitreihenvergleich angedeutet: Poisoning-Verluste liefen bereits mit einer Rate von \u201emehr als 8x\u201c gegen\u00fcber der Zeit vor Fusaka.<\/p>\n

Der zweite Strang der Tokenomics-Kritik betrifft Fees und Validator-Erl\u00f6se. Culper verweist auf die Fusaka-\u00c4nderung von 45 auf 60 Millionen Gas, die L1 skalieren sollte. Erwartet worden seien laut Culper 10\u201330% niedrigere Gasgeb\u00fchren; tats\u00e4chlich seien die Geb\u00fchren um rund 90% gefallen. Culper macht daf\u00fcr eine Fehleinsch\u00e4tzung der Nachfrageelastizit\u00e4t verantwortlich \u2013 \u201eum das 3- bis 9-fache\u201c, basierend auf veralteter Mathematik \u201evor EIP-1559 und vor L2s\u201c. In diesem Kontext wird auch Vitalik Buterin als Signalgeber ins Feld gef\u00fchrt: \u201eDeshalb glauben wir, dass Vitalik ETH in gro\u00dfem Stil verkauft. Am 30. Januar k\u00fcndigte Vitalik vorab an, 16.384 ETH zu verkaufen, um die \u201aAusterit\u00e4tsphase\u2018 der Foundation zu finanzieren. Seitdem hat er \u00fcber 19.300 ETH verkauft \u2013 und es werden mehr.\u201c Der Mechanismus dahinter, so Culper: Niedrigere Geb\u00fchren dr\u00fccken Tips pro Gas, Validatoren s\u00e4hen 40\u201350% weniger Tips, sinkende Yields schw\u00e4chten Staking-Nachfrage und \u201ehochwertige\u201c Aktivit\u00e4t \u2013 ein Flywheel, das \u201er\u00fcckw\u00e4rts\u201c laufe.<\/p>\n

Der Thread endet mit einer Marktstruktur-These, keinem Kursziel<\/a>: ETH verliere Anteil an Solana und sogar an eigenen L2s; als Indiz nennt Culper unter anderem Entwicklerwachstum 2025 (Solana 29% vs. Ethereum 6%) sowie Aussagen, Institutionen wie Visa und Citigroup h\u00e4tten Solana f\u00fcr DeFi-Apps gew\u00e4hlt, und Solana-Dex-Volumen liege bei mehr als dem Doppelten von Ethereum. Ob der Short aufgeht, h\u00e4ngt damit weniger an kurzfristigen Transaktionsspitzen als an der Frage, ob Fusaka-bedingter Blockspace-\u00dcberhang, Fee-Kompression und \u201ePoisoning\u201c-Rauschen die Tokenomics tats\u00e4chlich dauerhaft verschoben haben \u2013 oder ob sich die Nachfrage- und Geb\u00fchrenbasis in den kommenden Quartalen normalisiert.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Culper Research hat auf X eine Short-Position in Ether und ETH-nahe Wertpapiere offengelegt \u2013 und begr\u00fcndet den Trade mit \u201ekaputten\u201c Tokenomics nach dem Fusaka-Upgrade im Dezember 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":329,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-328","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nCulper geht Short Ethereum und warnt vor schwachen Tokenomics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Culper Research hat auf X eine Short-Position in Ethereum und ETH-nahe Wertpapiere offengelegt.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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