Bitcoin has now gone 98 straight days without a meaningful reversal in on-chain capital flows, according to a new market brief from analyst Axel Adler Jr., extending a defensive regime that has defined the market since mid-January. The latest data suggests selling pressure may be easing in April, but the broader signal remains unchanged: fresh capital has not yet returned in force.
Bitcoin Outflows Hit 98 Days Without Reversal
Adler’s April 16 morning brief argues that Bitcoin’s structural capital picture has stayed negative throughout 2026, with both the 365-day growth rate metric comparing market cap and realized cap, and the 30-day realized cap change, remaining below the threshold associated with sustained inflows. In his framing, that matters because it shows demand has not been strong enough to absorb distribution for more than three months. “Both structural capital indicators … have remained in negative territory since the start of 2026,” the report said. “This means demand has failed to offset selling pressure for more than three months.”
The longer-term growth signal has been especially weak. Adler said the market cap versus realized cap growth delta has stayed below zero for all 105 trading days since Jan. 1, with only one brief attempt at recovery between Jan. 16 and Jan. 22. That move faded quickly, and by Jan. 23 the metric had slipped back into negative territory, where it has remained ever since. The current delta stands at -0.000652, while its 90-day simple moving average has fallen to -0.001005. That places the indicator above its own trendline, a relative improvement, but not enough to alter the bigger picture.
The realized cap data tells a similar story, and in some ways a more tangible one. Out of the same 105-day period, only seven days posted a positive 30-day realized cap change, and all of them came during that same short January window. Since Jan. 23, the metric has been continuously negative. Adler described realized cap as a direct gauge of actual capital entering or leaving the network, not a mirror of price alone. “A decline in Realized Cap means holders were selling coins below their acquisition price or withdrawing capital from the network,” the note said. “This is not an echo of a price correction, but direct evidence of capitulation and real money leaving the system.”
April Data Hints at Slower Selling, Not Relief
There has, however, been some moderation in the pace of outflows this month. The 30-day realized cap change reached its worst reading on Feb. 20 at -2.58%, but that pressure has eased materially since then. Adler highlighted a more recent improvement from -0.54% on April 6 to -0.32% as of April 15, calling it the first signal worth tracking. Realized cap itself has fallen from $1.1208 trillion on Jan. 1 to $1.0847 trillion, a decline of 3.23% over the period, while Bitcoin’s price was listed at $74,819, still well below January’s opening levels.
That softening in outflows lines up with the second indicator trading above its 90-day average, which Adler sees as a sign that conditions are becoming less negative even if they are not yet positive. The distinction is central to the brief. “Both charts are sending the same signal: the outflow is slowing, but has not yet reversed,” he wrote. “This is the key observation today.” For market participants looking for a turn, the implication is that stabilization alone is not enough; what matters is whether slower selling becomes actual net accumulation.
Adler set a high bar for any shift in regime. In his view, a bullish reversal would require the 30-day realized cap change to move into sustained positive territory for at least one to two weeks, rather than the two- or three-day blip seen in January. At the same time, the 365-day growth delta would need to break above zero and hold there for more than a week. Until both happen together, the market remains in what the brief calls a “defensive” and “risk-off” phase, with the main near-term risk being another bout of capitulation if price revisits early-April levels and selling pressure accelerates again.
For now, the April improvement looks more like exhaustion in selling than confirmation of renewed demand. Bitcoin’s on-chain capital structure has yet to produce the sustained inflow signal that would support a cleaner shift in positioning, leaving traders to watch whether this recent easing becomes the first step toward reversal or just another pause in a still-negative trend.
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