Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards says Bitcoin is trading closer to a bottom than a top, but stopped short of calling the market deeply undervalued. In a live webinar with Joe Shew Crypto Consulting Institute on March 12, Edwards argued that on-chain valuation, miner cost models and institutional flow data all point to a developing value zone, even as unresolved quantum computing risk continues to cap upside.
Edwards Says Bitcoin Is Closer to Value
Edwards framed the current setup as constructive, but not yet the kind of washed-out opportunity seen in prior cycle lows. “Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it’s close to the bottom than the top,” he said. “Long story short, we’re in a value zone, but as with any asset, equities, anything, you can be in a value zone for a long time. So you want to see some kind of confirmation for strength.”
That distinction matters for allocators trying to separate long-term accumulation from tactical timing. Edwards said investors with a multi-year horizon “probably can’t go wrong here” with some exposure, though he emphasized that the market has not yet reached the “deep value range” that would make him much more aggressive. For that, he pointed to Bitcoin’s historical tendency to spend months near its production cost band, which he put between $50,000 and $60,000 today.
He said Capriole is currently running a small net long Bitcoin position, but would become “super excited” if price moved into the low-to-mid $50,000s, or even the high $40,000s. At the same time, he noted that a major breakdown is not required for a bullish shift. A strong technical breakout, price outperformance versus other assets, or a clear turn in institutional flows could all serve as confirmation that a base is forming instead.
Edwards tied that valuation view to a cluster of long-standing on-chain indicators. He highlighted Bitcoin production cost as his “number one favorite” tool for identifying value, describing the current zone near miner cost as historically attractive. He also cited energy value, Yardstick, NVT and the Mayer Multiple, saying the message across those models is broadly consistent: Bitcoin is cheap relative to recent history, just not at a cycle-extreme discount.
On NVT, he said Bitcoin is trading in a green zone associated with strong historical opportunities, while the Mayer Multiple recently touched levels that have often marked favorable long-term entry points. Edwards also noted that volatility compression should shape expectations. Bitcoin is now a much larger asset than in earlier cycles, which may mean fewer dramatic overshoots to the downside before a trend reverses.
That leaves investors in an in-between market: cheap enough to justify exposure, but not obvious enough to trigger conviction buying across all timeframes. Edwards’ framework was explicit on that point. “It’s not yet really exciting for me,” he said, even as he acknowledged that waiting for perfect lows can leave sidelined capital chasing higher prices once market structure turns.
Flows, Costs and Quantum Shape the Outlook
Among near-term indicators, Edwards said net institutional buying is now one of the most important metrics in Bitcoin. The measure tracks combined ETF demand and purchases by roughly 200 treasury companies against daily mined supply. “If it’s net positive, especially if it’s above the amount of Bitcoin it’s mined per day, so it’s greater than the organic supply, then that is really positive,” he said. “We’ve seen all the major price appreciation when that’s net positive.”
Even so, he cautioned that the signal is still early. While flows have turned up, he noted that roughly 80% of ETF and treasury buyers are still below cost basis, a backdrop he described as carrying “typical bear market vibes.” His threshold for a more durable shift is a sustained hold in demand and price: if strong buying persists for a week or two and Bitcoin remains above $70,000, that would suggest “a solid base building here.”
On the chart, Edwards said the weekly area around $71,500 is the line to watch. A weekly close above that level, paired with strong flows, would be “pretty bullish” for a multi-day or multi-week move, though he warned that a rally into the mid-$70,000s or even low-$80,000s would not by itself invalidate broader bearish structure. He compared the recent selloff to May 2022, noting similarities in speed, magnitude and Bitcoin’s position relative to production cost.
The larger complication in his view is quantum computing risk, which he said is now a real portfolio consideration for institutions and a ceiling on Bitcoin’s rerating. “I honestly think we may not see new all-time highs until it’s addressed by the core team,” Edwards said. He contrasted Bitcoin’s pace with Ethereum, saying the Ethereum Foundation has made the issue a top priority, while Bitcoin Core developers have recently indicated it is not near the top of their agenda.
Edwards argued the market may already be pricing in much of that risk, which creates an unusual asymmetry. “I think the risk today is fully priced in,” he said. “So the opportunity is actually skewed to the upside because as soon as there’s any traction on it, you get probably a significant repricing. As soon as you got some of the top core team saying we’re implementing or working on this code solution, I think the repricing could be massive.”
He laid out the concern in practical terms. Public-key-exposed coins, including dormant and lost supply, could be vulnerable within what he described as a plausible six-year window, and active users would still need to migrate to quantum-resistant addresses. That creates two market questions at once: whether Bitcoin can coordinate a code upgrade in time, and whether potentially 10% to 30% of supply could be unlocked if old coins are not protected. For Edwards, that is enough to keep capital cautious until the development process shows visible movement.
Edwards’ central message was not that Bitcoin has already bottomed, but that value is building in a market still waiting for confirmation. On-chain metrics and miner cost models are leaning constructive, institutional flows are improving, and the macro backdrop remains supportive for hard assets. But until Bitcoin either reclaims key technical levels with sustained demand or makes tangible progress on the quantum question, his view is that the market remains investable rather than outright compelling.
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